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Subj. Operation Sindoor--India.Pakistan--CyberNuclear Profiles: Civilian, Military
06 May 2025
Encl. (1) herewith, submitted.
CLASSIFIED
PART I. ORGANIZATIONAL DATA
Key Organizations Monitoring Cyber Activity Related to Nuclear Threats.
A. Pakistan
1. Strategic Plans Division (SPD):
a. Manages all nuclear matters, including security and cyber defense for nuclear assets.
b. The SPD also oversees a Security Division with a quick reaction force and is responsible for implementing cybersecurity measures at nuclear site.
2. Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA):
a. Acts as the nuclear regulator, issuing regulations (such as Regulation 19 of PNRA Regulation 925) to enforce cybersecurity at nuclear facilities and conducting monitoring and inspections.
3. Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC):
a. Operates nuclear facilities and is tasked with implementing cybersecurity frameworks as mandated by regulations.
4. Pakistan Center of Excellence for Nuclear Security (PCENS):
a. Provides training in nuclear security, including cyber aspects, to enhance preparedness and response.
5. Pakistan Computer Emergency Response Team (PKCERT):
a. Handles national-level cyber incident response, including threats to critical infrastructure.
B. India
1. National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC):
a. The lead agency for protecting critical information infrastructure, including nuclear command and control systems, from cyber threats.
2. National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO):
a. Responsible for technical intelligence and cyber defense, including monitoring potential cyber threats to nuclear assets.
3. Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In):
a. National agency for responding to cyber incidents, including those targeting critical infrastructure.
4. Crisis Management Plan for Cyber Attacks: Provides protocols for responding to cyber threats, including those with implications for nuclear security.
PART II. NARRATIVE SUMMARY
1. India-Pakistan Nuclear Posturing
a. On April 22, 2025, a deadly attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, killed 26 people, mostly tourists. India blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants involved, a charge Pakistan denied.
b. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi granted the military "complete operational freedom" to decide on retaliation, convening multiple high-level security meetings.
c. Both nations engaged in nuclear signaling. India, which maintains a "no first use" nuclear doctrine, relied on conventional military threats and visible missile tests to signal resolve.
d. Pakistan, which follows a "full spectrum deterrence" policy (including the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons), put its National Command Authority on high alert and made public statements hinting at nuclear readiness if Indian forces crossed certain thresholds.
e. Pakistani officials explicitly warned that any Indian military action would be met with a "decisive" response, and invoked the possibility of using "any means necessary" to defend itself.
PART III. CHRONOLOGICAL SEQUENCE
Saber Rattling Between India and Pakistan After the Pahalgam Attack
1. April 22, 2025: A mass shooting in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, kills 26 civilians, mostly Hindu tourists. The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claims responsibility, intensifying India-Pakistan tensions.
2. April 24–25, 2025: India accuses Pakistan of supporting the militants. Both countries begin downgrading diplomatic relations, expelling diplomats, and closing borders. Border skirmishes erupt along the Line of Control (LoC).
3. April 28, 2025: Pakistani officials openly escalate nuclear rhetoric. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif warns of nuclear retaliation if Pakistan's existence is threatened, and Railway Minister Hanif Abbasi threatens "full-scale war" in response to India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.
4. April 29–30, 2025: Pakistan's Information Minister claims "credible intelligence" of an imminent Indian military strike within 24–36 hours, framing the situation as a potential trigger for further escalation. India holds high-level security meetings; Prime Minister Modi reportedly gives armed forces autonomy to determine the timing and method of any response.
5. Early May 2025: Both militaries remain on high alert, with Pakistan conducting naval drills and India deploying its aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea as a precaution against further escalation.
PART IV. SIGNIFICANT TECHNOLOGY
I. Nuclear Infrastructure
A. Pakistan
1. Civil Nuclear Power
a. Pakistan operates six commercial nuclear power plants, primarily using pressurized water reactors, with a total net capacity of about 3,262 megawatts (MW).
(1) Most reactors have been supplied by China, and one additional unit is under construction.
(2) Nuclear power contributed about 10% of Pakistan’s electricity generation in 2021.
b. Major nuclear power sites include:
(1) Karachi Nuclear Power Plant (KANUPP).
(2) Chashma Nuclear Power Plant (multiple units).
c. Expansion plans aim for 8,800 MW of nuclear capacity by 2030 and up to 40,000 MW by 2050, targeting about one-fourth of the national energy mix
2. Nuclear Weapons Program
a. Pakistan is one of nine states with nuclear weapons, having developed its capability independently of its civil nuclear program.
b. The infrastructure includes at least 10 major industrial facilities and about 10 bases for nuclear-capable forces.
(1) Khan Research Laboratories (Kahuta): Main uranium enrichment facility.
(2) Khushab: Plutonium production reactors.
(3) Chagai Hills and Kharan Desert: Nuclear test sites.
(4) Rawalpindi (PINSTECH): Research and reprocessing facilities.
c. Pakistan maintains a "full-spectrum deterrent" posture, with warheads for delivery by missiles and aircraft.
d. Pakistan is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), limiting international nuclear trade except with China.
e. Some facilities are under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, but key weapons-related sites are not.
B. India
1. Civil Nuclear Power
a. India is rapidly expanding its nuclear infrastructure to meet growing energy demands and environmental goals. Here are the key highlights:
b. Current Capacity and Reactors: As of early 2025, India operates 25 nuclear reactors across 8 plants, with a total installed capacity of about 8,880 MW (8.88 GW), generating around 3% of the nation's electricity.
c. Additional reactors are under construction: 8 new units (6.6 GW) are being built, and 10 more (7 GW) are in pre-project stages.
d. The government aims to increase nuclear capacity to 22,480 MW by 2031-32 and has set an ambitious target of 100 GW by 2047.
e. Expansion includes new projects in states like Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Haryana, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh, with international collaborations, such as a planned 6 x 1,208 MW plant in Andhra Pradesh with the USA.
f. Recent policy changes now allow private sector participation, and India is investing in advanced technologies like Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and indigenous Advanced Heavy Water Reactors (AHWRs).
a. Strategic Initiatives and Partnerships
(1) India’s nuclear program is led by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), with joint ventures like ASHVINI (NPCIL and NTPC) for new projects.
(2) International cooperation includes agreements with the US, France, and Russia, and access to global nuclear fuel markets via the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
2. Nuclear Weapons Program
a. Arsenal and Capabilities
(1) As of 2025, India is estimated to have around 180 nuclear warheads, though estimates vary between 160 and 180.
India has enough weapons-grade plutonium for up to 213 warheads.
b. India has developed a nuclear triad, meaning it can deliver nuclear weapons by land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).
c. India maintains a "no first use" (NFU) policy, pledging not to use nuclear weapons unless first attacked by nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons.
(1) The doctrine is based on "credible minimum deterrence," focusing on retaliation rather than first-strike capability.
International Stance
d. India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), citing concerns about discrimination in these regimes.
(1) India is a member of several export control regimes, including the Missile Technology Control Regime, Wassenaar Arrangement, and Australia Group.
II. Nuclear Cybersecurity
Cyber Activities That Might Indicate a Possible Nuclear Strike in an India-Pakistan Crisis:
1. Targeted attacks on nuclear command and control systems:
a. Attempts to penetrate, disrupt, or manipulate the digital systems associated with nuclear weapons-such as command, control, and communications-are a major red flag.
b. Such activity could include hacking attempts, malware deployment, or denial-of-service attacks aimed at disabling or spoofing these critical systems.
2. Disruption of early warning or detection systems:
a. Cyber operations that interfere with missile warning systems or radiation detection networks could be used to blind or confuse decision-makers, increasing the risk of miscalculation or a preemptive strike.
3. Attacks on critical infrastructure linked to nuclear operations:
a. Efforts to compromise power grids, telecommunications, or military networks that support nuclear operations may signal attempts to degrade a country’s nuclear response capability or readiness.
4. Unusual cyberespionage targeting nuclear facilities or military leadership:
a. A surge in sophisticated cyber intrusions focused on nuclear sites, military command centers, or senior leadership communications could indicate intelligence gathering in preparation for escalation.
5. Coordinated information operations:
a. Cyber-enabled disinformation campaigns or the spread of false alerts regarding nuclear threats could be used to sow confusion, panic, or justify military action.
PART V. CIVILIAN AFFAIRS
International Press and Social Media Reaction to India-Pakistan Nuclear Rhetoric.
1. Press Coverage
a. The rhetoric quickly turned nuclear: Pakistani officials, including Minister Hanif Abbasi, openly threatened New Delhi with nuclear retaliation if India halted water supplies under the Indus Waters Treaty, which India suspended as part of its response. Abbasi stated that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons “are not for display” and warned of “full-scale war.”
b. Indian media and officials dismissed these nuclear threats as bluster, emphasizing India’s military readiness and highlighting Pakistan’s history of invoking nuclear rhetoric during crises.
c. International outlets like CBS News and RFE/RL noted concerns about a possible military clash between the two nuclear-armed neighbors, reporting on the unprecedented breakdown of diplomatic and security agreements, and the danger of escalation.
2. Social Media
a. Social media in both countries became highly polarized. Indian users expressed outrage at the attack and called for strong retaliation, often mocking Pakistan’s nuclear threats as empty or routine. Hashtags like #PahalgamAttack and #IndusWaters trended, with many posts demanding justice for the victims and criticizing Pakistan’s denials.
b. In Pakistan, social media amplified government statements about Indian aggression and the nuclear deterrent, with some users warning of catastrophic consequences if India attacked. Nationalist rhetoric and conspiracy theories about Indian “false flag” operations also circulated widely.
c. International observers and analysts on platforms like X (formerly Twitter) warned of the risks of miscalculation and called for restraint, noting the history of both nations invoking nuclear threats during periods of tension.
3. Global Response
a. Western governments and international organizations urged both sides to exercise restraint and avoid escalatory rhetoric, emphasizing the catastrophic risks of any conflict between nuclear-armed states.
PART VI. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS
1. Summary Table: Key Statements and Actions
Document/Source Statement/Action Nuclear Reference?
Reuters (Khawaja Asif) Pakistan will use nuclear weapons only if existence is threatened Yes
Firstpost/Mint (Hanif Abbasi) Threatened nuclear retaliation if water supplies are cut Yes
Al Jazeera/BBC/Newsweek Pakistan warns of decisive response to Indian military action Implied/Yes
CNN, CBS, Diplomat Reports of military readiness and international calls for restraint Contextual
2. Domestic/International News/Social Media Outlets.
3. Synthetic Intelligence: Perplexity-AI.
4. Image credit: https://www.ssbcrack.com/2024/02/all-submarines-of-the-indian-navy.html
Prepared for Charlie.Two by JCL, (204xxxx-2533)
End of Report
CLASSIFIED
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